Tip-Off #197 – The heron at dawn

“The Minerva owls fly only at dusk.” Written by the philosopher GWF Hegel, I suggest that wisdom is merely a reflection. You can’t wait long. With the decreasing certainty of the Western-led world order, the new multipolar reality demands real-time understanding rather than hindsight.

Earlier this month, The Atlantic Ocean David Fulham declared, “The Chinese century brought to you by Donald Trump.” That same day, New York Times Columnist Thomas Friedman returned from China with headlines “I just saw the future. It wasn’t in America.” Their reflection reflects the realization of growth. And the eastern powers, particularly China, are rapidly gaining positions.

China is currently working with Russia, Iran and North Korea to build alternative influences. These governments are not formal allies in the traditional sense, but they share a common goal. Resist Western control, decouple US sanctions, and pursue shared strategic interests through close coordination of diplomacy, intelligence and military issues.

This reorganization is accelerating as the United States retreats from its traditional global role. Washington retreats – left a strategic gap, especially in parts of Latin America and Europe. China is moving rapidly to fill the void to expand its influence in regions once seen primarily by the US, using trade transactions, infrastructure investments and diplomacy.

What is emerging is not a simple East-West division, but a competitive, fragmented global scene. The unipolar moments of US domination give way to a world where power is distributed across several centers, each with their own unique approach to politics, economy and values.

Cultural differences play a central role in this change. Western political traditions emphasize individual autonomy, competition and market efficiency. This is rooted in the liberalism of Enlightenment and is reinforced by decades of capitalist development. In contrast, many Eastern societies emphasize the idea that solidarity, belonging and freedom arise from fulfilling their obligations to the community. These differences shape domestic policy and how nations engage with other parts of the world.

Some thinkers frame Chinese-American relations as civilizations. Russian philosopher Alexander Duguin summoned the “Putin’s brain” – reinforces the Eurasian order rooted in spiritual depth and social hierarchy, set against Western liberal materialism. Multipolarity represents a world in which a distinct civilization can maintain cultural sovereignty and traditional values. This system of imposing a civilization of diversity (liberals, communists or otherwise) is fundamentally destructive, and therefore “devils,” in Dugan’s view. Just or not, liberal internationalism is considered eurocentric as Western hegemony and universal rights.

Portuguese author Bruno Massazu, Indiana The dawn of Eurasiaprovides a subtle perspective. Europe and Asia converge not only physically but conceptually, on a single supercontinent defined by new strategic connections and blurred cultural lines.

The difference between Eurasia and the West is crucial for Dugan, and may not be more divided than its similarity. The United States and China define themselves primarily in two different forms of the same system. Capitalism– Through the nation, the United States merges state and capital into a hybrid model. Like family hatred, rivalries are particularly intense in the same economy, like two poker players playing the same game. The most intense rivals often appear because of basic similarities, not between people or groups that are completely different from each other. The tariff war is a family feud, and as a result, it will probably be difficult to resolve.

Military and political power are still important, but they need a favorable market to make lasting differences. What’s important now is the ability to bridge Similaritiesinterprets unfamiliar perspectives and adapts strategies across a variety of cultural logics. Strategic clarity requires cultural motility. Idealism is practical and can even self-serve each other.

Give the rest of the US and West to the short shrift shortchanges of the future. Maybe instead of Minerva owls flying only at dusk, we should think of the Heron, who begins fishing at dawn. It must be thought of as being skillfully patient, positive, and ready to act in a world that is beginning to take on new forms.

Notes and reading

“Minerva’s Owl” -Hegel uses Minerva’s owl (the goddess of symbolic wisdom) to illustrate his view that philosophical understanding comes only retrospectively after the symbolic understanding unfolds. This famous palph appears in Hegel’s preface The philosophy of rights, Published in 1820.

Alexander Dugin – Duguin expresses his opinion most clearly in his work Fourth political theory (2012). Political scientist Francis Fukuyama is critical of Duguin’s worldview, but he recognizes him as “the most influential philosopher in the geopolitical realm of the non-Western world.”

The Dawn of Eurasia: On the Road of the New World Order -Bruno Maçães (2018). Maçães is a Portuguese philosopher, journalist, politician, consultant and author. He is the former Secretary of State for Portugal’s European Affairs.

China’s Underestimation: Why America Needs a New Strategies of Related Scale to Offer the Enduring Beijing Benefits – Kurt M. Campbell and Rush Dosi, Foreign Affairs (May/June 2025). Campbell is the chairman and co-founder of Asia Group. He served as Biden’s Secretary of State and NSC Indo-Pacific Coordinator. Doshi directs the CFR’s China Strategic Initiative and teaches at Georgetown’s Foreign Office. He wrote Long Game: China’s grand strategy to drive away American order.

Trump’s trade war is bolstering China’s soft power – Louise Matakis, Wired (April 18, 2025). The US previously justified trade measures against China by citing human rights and IP theft, but now has a global technology brand and leading AI. In contrast, the Trump administration’s alleged rights warn international observers. – Matakis I’m Wired’s senior business editor.

Watches: Bari Weiss and Tyler Cowen tariffs, AI, China, etc. (37 minutes) – Free Press (April 6, 2025), discussions on the “liberation day” and impact on the global market featuring journalist Bari Weiss (former WSJ/NYT editor, UATX founder) and economist Cowen (George Mason).

“The most fierce competition often emerges due to fundamental similarities.” – For more information about the paradox of similarity, see Sigmund Freud must say about “narcissism of small differences” and about René Girard on “mimic rivalry.” (Don’t be fooled by the Girard Thiel/Vance Society.)

Strategic clarity requires cultural motility. . . – See the extensive research of the Reuters Institute for Journalism/Oxford University Research. and “International Communication: Continuity and Change,” Daya Kishan Thussu – Goldsmiths College, University of London (2002), Academia.edu. The evolution from a traditional government-focused exchange to a broader global communication involving a diverse range of stakeholders. Thussu is a professor of international communications Hong Kong Baptist University Chairman of the International Association for Media Communication Studies (IAMCR).

“From liberal order to practical partnerships: a transatlantic reorganization.” – Gladden Pappin, Post-facto order (Substack- April 12, 2025). The order of freedom is the highest provocation from the “new rights.”

“Give a short silift for the future” – With a “Better Crystal Ball.” – Diplomacy (October 13, 2020). A new super cycle has begun.

Tip #196 – Another word, another world

Tip #195 – Democracy of chaos

Approx. 2 + 2 = 5