midterms, Supreme Court, and more

With the start of a new year comes new legal and political developments that seek to change the world. From a major Supreme Court case and a potential change in House leadership to preparations for the United States’ 250th anniversary, 2026 is expected to be a momentous year, with LGBTQ rights, and transgender rights in particular, continuing to be a focus of national debate.

Decisions made this year across Congress, courts, federal agencies, and state legislatures are poised to shape the legal and political landscape for LGBTQ Americans far beyond the next election cycle.

meeting

A significant number of federal seats will be up for grabs in 2026. All 435 districts in the U.S. House of Representatives are on the ballot, giving Democrats a chance to flip the chamber and regain some control from Republicans, who have held the chamber since 2022. The House’s lead is especially important as lawmakers consider legislation related to civil rights, health care access and the scope of federal protections for LGBTQ Americans.

A Democratic majority would also determine committee leadership, oversight priorities, and the ability to block or advance legislation related to transgender health care, education policy, and federal anti-discrimination protections.

Several House races are expected to be particularly important for LGBTQ representation and leadership, including races in Texas’ 32nd Congressional District, New York’s 17th Congressional District, and Illinois’ 9th Congressional District.

Democratic incumbent in Texas’ 32nd Congressional District julie johnson He is seeking re-election to the seat in the northeast Dallas area. Johnson will be the first openly LGBTQ person elected to Congress from Texas or the South, according to his congressional website. Her re-election bid comes amid Republican efforts to redistrict districts to strengthen the party’s grip at the request of President Trump, a move that is making the race increasingly difficult.

During his time in office, Johnson has pushed for expanded access to Medicare, strengthened protections for LGBTQ rights, and broader health equity. The race is an important test for LGBTQ incumbents navigating an increasingly hostile political and electoral environment, especially in southern states.

Democratic Party in New York’s 17th Congressional District Kate Conley He continues to challenge Republican incumbent Mike Lawler in the lower Hudson Valley, just north of New York City. Conley is a former active-duty Army officer who was deployed six times and uses that experience to connect with the district’s mixed constituency.

The district frequently shifts between political parties and includes the politically influential conservative Hasidic community, making it one of the most competitive seats in the region. Conley, who is openly lesbian, has spoken out strongly in support of LGBTQ rights and, with support from LPAC, has positioned herself as a pro-equality candidate in a closely watched race that could take control of the House.

Illinois’ 9th Congressional District is also shaping up to be a hotly contested open seat. The district spans parts of Cook, Lake, and McHenry counties and includes much of Chicago’s North Side. In 2025, Democratic Rep. Jan Schakowsky, who has represented the district since January 1999, announced that he would not seek reelection.

mike simmonswas elected to the Illinois State Senate in 2021 and is seeking that seat. Simmons is the first openly LGBTQ person and the first Ethiopian American to be elected to the state Senate, where he has focused on expanding LGBTQ rights, strengthening democratic institutions, and addressing cost inequities in health care, housing, and support for community-based organizations. Given the district’s suburban makeup, this election could emerge as a front-row battle for the influence of pro-equality legislation.

If Democrats succeed in regaining control of Congress, the result will be a reshuffle of leadership at the highest levels. One possible outcome is for Hakeem Jeffries to become the first Black Speaker of the House, a historic milestone that will influence legislative priorities, representation, and the direction of Democratic leadership.

Beyond the House of Representatives, control of the U.S. Senate will also be affected. In 2026, 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate are scheduled to be up for election. Thirty-three of those seats are up for regular elections, and two additional special elections will be held in Florida and Ohio. Some of these contests are expected to hinge on issues such as access to abortion, federal oversight, judicial recognition, and the future of LGBTQ protections at the national level. Political observers say the Senate will be tougher for Democrats, but not an impossible challenge.

governorship

The gubernatorial election will further shape the national policy environment. A total of 36 states and three U.S. territories could elect new governors in 2026, many of whom will have significant influence over education policy, health care access, and enforcing (or reversing) civil rights protections.

One notable development is the Republican Senate. marsha blackburnwill participate in the Tennessee gubernatorial election. Blackburn has been an outspoken opponent of LGBTQ rights and has previously proposed a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage, making this race one to watch for LGBTQ advocates.

2 races to watch

Colorado gubernatorial election:

Jared Polis made history in 2018 as the first openly gay governor elected in U.S. history, but his term in the Mile High State is coming to an end. Polis cannot run for re-election in 2026 due to term limits. Senator Michael Bennet and Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser Democratic Party’s Most Likely Candidate In a race that could determine whether the state continues on its LGBTQ-inclusive policy trajectory.

Iowa State Senate Seat:

Zach Walls He is running for Senate in Iowa. Walls, an Iowa senator, has built a track record focused on expanding health care access, minimizing government corruption, and protecting LGBTQ equality. Walls, who famously was raised by two lesbian mothers, frequently cites her family as shaping her advocacy work and positions her campaign as centered on her personal experiences as well as her legislative record.

Scotus

The Supreme Court is expected to issue several decisions this year that could have far-reaching implications for LGBTQ rights across the country. Two of the hottest issues concern transgender athletes in school sports and the legality of banning conversion therapy.

Two cases related to transgender athletes in school sports to be heard in 2025, West Virginia v. BPJ and Little v. Hecox, are expected to be decided later this year. Oral arguments are scheduled for Jan. 13, when the court is poised to decide whether states can ban transgender girls and women from participating in women’s sports teams.

Legal experts have warned that the decision could have far-reaching civil rights implications beyond athletics, changing the interpretation of sex discrimination and Title IX protections across education and employment.

The court will also rule on the future of the ban on conversion therapy and whether such restrictions are protected by the First Amendment. In October 2025, the justices heard oral arguments in Chile v. Salazar. The case will decide whether state and local bans on conversion therapy for LGBTQ youth violate free speech and the free exercise of religious protections. A ruling in favor of the plaintiffs could weaken or overturn bans enacted in dozens of states and localities.

federal policy changes

As this year takes shape, several new federal policies are being implemented, and some of the most immediate impacts will fall on LGBTQ people. One of the most important changes is the elimination of gender-affirming long-term care insurance for federal employees.

The policy, introduced by President Trump’s Office of Personnel Management, would eliminate health insurance coverage for most gender-affirming medical care in the Federal Employees Health Benefits (FEHB) and Postal Service Health Benefits (PSHB) programs. This change will affect hundreds of thousands of federal employees and their families.

human rights campaign Filed a lawsuit against OPM policyargued that the change violated Title VII’s prohibition on sex discrimination in employment. Supporters argue that the policy not only limits access to medically necessary care, but also signals a broader federal rollback from LGBTQ-inclusive health protections.

Similar proposals are being considered for the broader American population, including efforts to limit Medicaid and Medicare coverage of gender-affirming care, measures that could disproportionately impact low-income transgender people, people with disabilities, and people living in rural areas.

historical anniversary

In 2026, several historic anniversaries will be held across the country. The most notable is the Quincentenary, which marks the 250th anniversary of the United States’ Declaration of Independence. Events are planned across the country, from small-town commemorations to large-scale national celebrations in Washington, DC.

Among the most anticipated events are: 4th of july celebration It is expected to be one of the biggest national events of the year, commemorating the 250th anniversary of independence from Britain.

However, the anniversary project is already causing ripples. Capital Pride, Washington’s annual Pride celebration, was forced to move from the second week of June to the third week after the White House announced plans to hold a large celebration on the South Lawn on June 14, 2026 to commemorate President Trump’s 80th birthday.

The White House announced the event would include a major Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) exhibition, including boxing and wrestling matches, a decision that has drawn scrutiny from LGBTQ advocates amid continued concerns about the federal government’s priorities and messaging in a monumental year for the nation.

It also marks 11 years since SCOTUS ruled in Obergefell v. Hodges that same-sex marriage was legally protected nationwide.