polling data Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are locked in a near-death battle in four states: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. And as LGBTQ+ political scientistI think LGBTQ+ voters could play a big role in these states and races.
So how will LGBTQ+ voters impact these states?
Explaining LGBTQ+ voting behavior
The most comprehensive political survey of LGBTQ+ Americans ever conducted. Pew Research Center Founded In 2013, the majority of respondents (85%) voted “always” or “almost always.” compared to about one-third of the general population. Voter turnout in the latest presidential election confirmed that result. A 2020 post-election study by advocacy group GLAAD found: 81% of LGBTQ+ voters voted.
For context, 64% of all voters I voted in the 2020 presidential election, and the voting participation rate was unusually high. Historically, voter turnout hover around 55% in presidential elections and 35% in midterm elections.
The National Center for Transgender Equality, an advocacy group, Turnout was found to be particularly high Among transgender people.
Among them The 2014 midterm elections had historically low turnout.the group’s data showed that about half of transgender respondents voted, compared to just one-third of the general population. According to , transgender voter turnout rose to nearly 75% in the 2022 midterm elections. 2024 US Trans Survey.
LGBTQ+ voters and partisanship
LGBTQ+ voters lean strongly toward the Democratic Party. What Pew’s 2013 study found Nearly 60% of all LGBTQ+ respondents were Democrats, while less than 10% were Republicans. Transgender voters are even more partisan, with nearly 80% identifying as Democratic or Democratic-leaning. 2015 US Trans Survey.
End of voting data The results of the 2016 presidential election also support this conclusion. Almost 80% of LGBTQ+ voters told researchers outside polling places that they would vote for Hillary Clinton. Only 14% said they supported Trump.
Initial exit poll data Trump doubled his share of LGBTQ+ voters to 28%, according to 2020 presidential election data. However, subsequent analysis refuted that finding, although LGBTQ+ voters actually Critical to Joe Biden’s victory.
This shocking miscalculation was likely due to voting errors related to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). 2022 Midterm Election Exit Poll Data Shows LGBTQ+ Support Republican Congressional Candidates Return to 14%.
LGBTQ+ voters in ‘tipping point’ states
Past polling data taken together shows that the LGBTQ+ community is most likely to support Harris over Trump by wide margins in four areas: “Tipping point” state – that is, swing states that have enough electoral votes to swing the entire election to one candidate.
Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania all have large populations of LGBTQ+ adults, and their margins of victory are significantly higher than when their winning candidates carried the states in 2020.
For example, Biden won Georgia and its 15 electors. 11,779 votes in 2020there are more than 400,000 LGBTQ+ adults in the state. Trump’s current clear lead in Georgia is within range. margin of errorand even a small increase in Democratic-leaning LGBTQ+ voters compared to 2020 could hand the state to Harris.
georgia Currently has 16 electors Following population growth.
In all four tipping point states, the gap between the two candidates is similarly narrow, less than 2 percentage points. This is within the state poll’s margin of error. The total number of electors in these states is 66. That’s almost double Biden’s electoral victory margin in 2020 and President Trump’s Difference in 2016.
If LGBTQ+ voter turnout in these four likely tipping point states is high, Harris could win the 2024 race, but if LGBTQ+ turnout is low, Trump could win. There is a possibility that the path will be opened.
Trump is well within striking distance in the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania and Michigan, where polls show him trailing. Statistical dead heat with Harris. This narrow margin is within the margin of error, and even a modest decline in turnout among the state’s thousands of LGBTQ+ voters could pose serious problems for Harris.
For context, in 2020 Biden won Pennsylvania and Michigan by margins of 80,555 and 154,188 votes, respectively.
Possible X elements
Of course, the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections are not carbon copies of each other.
of LGBTQ+ voters are increasing year by yearand by 2030 1 in 7 voters There is an expectation that you will identify as LGBTQ+.
Republicans also make progress Legislative attacks on LGBTQ+ rights Since 2020, Republican Campaign ads with anti-transgender messages Dominate this election cycle. Both of these factors will play a role in 2024, as will the upheaval in North Carolina’s gubernatorial race.
In September, CNN reported North Carolina Republican candidate for governor Mark Robinson posted controversial comments on pornographic websites from 2008 to 2012. refer to yourself Robinson describes himself as a “black Nazi” It was fun to watch Transgender porn.
For candidates, anti-trans rhetoric This was shocking news, including the statement that transgender women should be arrested for using women’s restrooms. Robinson has denied the allegations, which greatly damaged his campaign. In a poll two weeks before the election, Robinson’s Democratic opponent Josh Stein said: Clear lead over Robinson.
Robinson’s troubled past and rocky campaign could turn North Carolina’s progressive circles, including LGBTQ+ voters, against him. When voter turnout increases It will almost certainly cut into Trump’s vote share. In North Carolina, he won by a 1.3% margin in 2020.
What to expect on election night
Historical trends, demographic data, and current events all point to LGBTQ+ voters playing a significant, and potentially decisive, role in tilting battleground states toward Harris.
But there are signs that Harris might be. LGBTQ+ voters underperform.
a September 2024 survey According to a report by the Human Rights Campaign, an LGBTQ+ advocacy group, about 20% of LGBTQ+ respondents are undecided, unsure whether to stay home or support a third party. Less than 8% of LGBTQ+ respondents supported Trump, but disaffected LGBTQ+ Democrats could pose a problem for Harris.
After all, there is no way to know what LGBTQ+ voters will actually do at the ballot box. This race is fluid, and a lot can happen before Election Day. Other voting blocks It will continue to grow or change in 2024 and beyond.
The answer will likely be revealed on election night or, in races this close, during the counting and recounts in the days and weeks that follow.
dorian lea debussyLecturer in Women’s, Gender, and Sexuality Studies, ohio state university
This article is republished from conversation Under Creative Commons License. please read original article.
Source: Advocate.com – www.advocate.com
