As the 2024 presidential race heats up, Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, a preeminent pollster in Washington, D.C., speaks Tuesday as Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump face off in the presidential race. spoke to The Advocate about what is happening and what he expects to happen. Lake was the chief pollster for Joe Biden’s campaign in 2020 and is also the Democratic National Committee’s chief pollster this year.
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My first question to Lake was as conclusive as possible. “Is this a redo of the infamous incident?” Bobby Riggs vs. Billie Jean Kinga men vs. women tennis match that took place in 1973?
“Wow, that’s a great analogy. I’ve never heard that before, but it’s so true. It’s men versus women,” she began.
Harris is trying to increase the number of women to compensate for the loss of men. And Donald Trump is trying to increase the number of men to make up for the loss of women.
More 2024 election coverage from The Advocate:
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– How pro-LGBTQ+ is Kamala Harris?
– 2024 LGBTQ+ Voter Guide
– Kamala Harris’ ‘top priority’ as president
– Where does Donald Trump stand on LGBTQ+ rights?
– Kamala Harris: One-on-one with the Vice President
Most encouraging to Lake is the impact of reproductive rights on women’s voting patterns. “Recent polling shows that suburban women, particularly those who have historically leant Republican, are reconsidering their allegiances because of abortion,” she noted. “Many women consider health care to be an important family issue and are likely to reject proposals that threaten them.”
In terms of intimidation, I told Lake about women being too scared to talk about their support for Harris, and funny stories about women leaving post-it notes in women’s restrooms to encourage each other. I told him that it had happened before. I asked her if she had heard about it. “I’ve seen it,” she answered. “There are also silent women out there who are difficult to capture in public opinion polls.”
This stems in part from President Trump’s efforts to maximize the male vote. “He had this theory when he ran against Biden in 2020, and he continues to stick to it against Harris,” Lake said.
She said President Trump seems to recognize that the gender gap has become so large that he must go after more women. “There are a lot of Republican women who will vote for Trump. I mean, he’s going after blue-collar women, but he’s doing it in a very reckless way that’s alienating a lot of women. Harris has to do it. What we need to do is make sure that blue-collar women don’t vote like their husbands.”
“Yes,” I answered. “I once heard a story about a man who told a campaigner that his wife would vote just as her husband would vote.” “Yes, that’s true,” she said. “I don’t think that story is an outlier.”
Lake pointed out that Harris is approaching this election with a strong strategy that emphasizes personal outreach throughout her campaign. This is in stark contrast to the Trump campaign’s reliance on media networks such as Fox News and base-driven messaging.
Trump’s approach is effective at energizing his loyal supporters, he said, but lacks the direct engagement with voters that Harris’ campaign cultivates. “I don’t think so. [the Trump campaign] canvas. That’s not the way it works,” Lake explained. “They’re communicating through conservative media and established networks, not grassroots efforts.”
But she cautioned that assessing President Trump’s influence purely in terms of metrics could overlook other channels of influence. “Measuring exposure based on calls alone may underestimate their exposure,” she says.
As for voter enthusiasm, Ms. Lake is particularly encouraged by the energy of young women, who are rapidly registering to vote, and Ms. Harris’ strong support among college-educated voters. “Abortion remains a powerful motivator and will be a factor in this election,” she said. “We’re empowering women from all walks of life.”
Lake believes this enthusiasm will help Harris bridge the gap. “What’s most encouraging to me is the enthusiasm of young women and their registration rates. Harris has an advantage with voters with college degrees and women who are feeling the impact of restrictive abortion laws,” she said. Ta.
On November 1, 2024, a sticky note with reasons for supporting Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is left on the wall of the Northampton County Harris/Waltz campaign headquarters in Easton, Pennsylvania.Photo by: SAMUEL CORUM/AFP via Getty Images
But Lake is concerned about voters in Harris’ coalition, especially Latino men and white blue-collar voters, who she sees as vulnerable to Trump’s appeal. “Again, I call this a ‘covert surge’ among Trump supporters, but it may be difficult to detect in polls,” she said. “What I’m concerned about is the voting among white, blue-collar people.” [voters]…and effectively leverage wedge issues like transgender rights, immigration, and crime to appeal to socially conservative voters. ”
One key factor for Lake is the persistent perception among many swing voters that Republicans are better on economic issues. “[Swing voters] There is still a belief that Republicans are generally better on the economy. [Trump] A successful businesswoman,” she said. “To address this, Ms. Harris’ campaign is focusing on economic policy, hoping to negate Mr. Trump’s advantage on this issue.”
I told Mr. Lake about his conversation with the former Republican strategist. sarah longwell and co-founder of the Lincoln Project rick wilson In it, we learned that about 11 percent of Republican voters could be persuaded to cross the aisle or vote as an independent, a trend already observed in primary polls. “It’s going to be underestimated,” Lake predicted.
As for black voters, Lake acknowledged that black men have historically been a strong support base for Harris, although some polls suggest a slight defection. However, she believes this trend is exaggerated by the media and poorly understood. “Black men are her second-best group,” she said.
Finally, Lake compared Harris’ current campaign to the 2020 Biden campaign she led, noting both similarities and new challenges. “So is competition in the economy,” she pointed out. “However, gender dynamics and the role of abortion in shaping women’s turnout will make 2024 look markedly different. Momentum can change quickly, but Harris’ current momentum is a sign of strength. I’m cautiously optimistic.”
Source: Advocate.com – www.advocate.com
