Oscars 2026 predictions: Who will win

4. Best Actor Award

Once upon a time, way back in December, it seemed like this was going to cost Timothée Chalamet his Oscar, but now it looks like he might actually lose it. There’s a good reason Michael B. Jordan has been on a roll lately. He is dynamic at the heart of Sinners and the film. And he has the advantage of the difficulty of playing identical twins. There’s nothing in his sharp performance that points out the reality of Oscar voting. A standout performance like that is exactly what they look for. Chalamet gave his best performance in Marty Supreme and still has a chance, but he lost the BAFTA to Robert Aramayo and the all-important Best Actor (formerly SAG) award to Jordan. And in recent months, while Marty Supreme’s award-winning fortune has continued to shrink, Sinners has continued to grow in power. I predict Jordan to win, but if I were to vote, I would vote for Wagner Moura for his deep, natural performance in The Secret Agent. In fact, this category may contain the strongest group of single nominees of the year, even a five-way tie that includes Leonardo DiCaprio and Ethan Hawke. (CJ)

5. Best Supporting Actor Award

I love Sean Penn’s performance in One Battle After Another. Using everything from his clenched brace to his bleached blonde haircut to his twitches and grimaces, Penn transforms into a larger-than-life, grotesque, malevolent yet hapless Colonel Lockjaw. Penn, who has previously won BAFTAs and Best Acting Awards, will play a different kind of villain in Sentimental Value, opposite the formidable Stellan Skarsgård, who plays a different kind of villain: a self-centered filmmaker. The big difference between the two is that Penn has already won two Oscars for “Mystic River” and “Milk,” while Skarsgård, 74, doesn’t have an Oscar yet. Aside from delivering one of his deepest character portrayals, he could win simply because the American film industry is so fond of him, and by extension his sons Alexander and Bill. (Note)

warner bros

6. Best Supporting Actress

This has been one of the most difficult categories to predict all season, and it still is. First Amy Madigan is the frontrunner for Weapons, then Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another, and now Madigan might win the acting award again and take the lead again – you never know, really. Madigan had a long and respected career, which worked to her advantage, and Taylor exploded off-screen with the kind of presence that makes a movie star. It’s a classic veteran vs. rookie race that could go either way, but I’m going to give Taylor the edge based on the huge momentum from One Battle After Another. Of course, the Sinners have momentum, and Wunmi Mosaku won the British Academy Awards, so there is a chance they could pull off a surprise upset. And Inga Ibsdotter Lileas gives a quiet but very good performance in Sentimental Value, so I think she should win. But let’s be realistic about this two-way race. Oscar voting has already ended, so everything is over for Madigan and Taylor, except nail-biting. (CJ)

7. Best Original Screenplay Award

With a record 16 Oscar nominations, Sinners is sure to win in several categories. The most likely of these is Best Original Screenplay. In fact, you could argue that Ryan Coogler’s script already qualifies as the year’s most successful original screenplay, considering Sinners was the highest-grossing film of 2025 worldwide that wasn’t based on an existing IP. And let’s not forget that Coogler also wrote and directed the hugely profitable films Black Panther and Creed. That’s why the Academy probably should have given him an Oscar years ago. But even if you ignore the box office success of his films, his script for Sinners counts as a major accomplishment. Coogler has written a cutting-edge horror film, but also a nifty period gangster thriller and a raucous musical that presents African-American music as a magical force capable of bending time and space. It’s no surprise that the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay goes to a highly original screenplay. (Note)

8. Best Screenplay Award

Bugonia? Frankenstein? Train dream? Despite the merits of all these films, not one of them received rave reviews for its script. That leaves “Hamnet” and “One Battle After Another” as the only real contenders for the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay. For me, Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell’s script for Hamnet is simpler and more superficial than O’Farrell’s novel, hitting us with themes that float off the page like a mist, whereas Paul Thomas Anderson’s adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s Vineland is a different story. Indeed, it would be more accurate to say that One Battle After Another was inspired by that book rather than adapted from it. Anderson has taken bits and pieces from Pynchon over the years, but he reassembles them into a new cinematic form, accelerating the story at breakneck speed, injecting his own feelings about parenthood, peppering it with dark comedy, and introducing so much ripped-from-the-headlines contemporary material that it’s hard to believe the novel was published in 1990. The screenplay has already won a BAFTA and a Golden Award. globe. It would be a shock if it didn’t win an Oscar. (Note)

Netflix

9. Best Animated Work Award

Producers of the Oscar show always try to spotlight the most popular movies of the year, often in a futile struggle, but with KPop Demon Hunters, that wish is sure to come true. Why not? The idea of ​​a group of girls fighting monsters and saving the world is inspired. This movie is fun, colorful, and hilarious. The song has a strong message about being true to yourself and a catchy tune (Golden is sure to win the award for Best Original Song), making it a huge worldwide hit. The film won almost every award in its category up to and including the Oscar, but the only reason it didn’t win a BAFTA was because it wasn’t released in British cinemas and was therefore ineligible for the award. Sure, Zootopia 2 won and was a big box office success, but the feisty cartoon animals can’t match the originality of the singing demon hunter. (CJ)

TIFF

10. Best International Film Award

All five nominated films are among the strongest films of the year, regardless of country. And in a sure sign of the film’s global reach, the category’s two front-runners, The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value, are also unsurprisingly nominated for Best Picture. The winner should be “The Secret Agent,” a timely and poignant political thriller depicting Brazil under a dictatorship. Blending personal and political stories, the film is built around Wagner Moura’s charismatic performance. Although Kleber Mendonça Filho was not nominated for Best Director, he was included in the conversation early on. Just one year after Brazil’s first-ever win, it seems exciting that I’m Still Here will bring the country another Oscar. However, I think there is a slightly higher chance that Norway’s “Sentimental Value” will win this award. The film received nine nominations for the award, including three for acting, directing, and original screenplay for Joachim Trier. Even more important than its show of strength, this eloquent and emotional family drama makes it easy to immerse yourself in its world. That might give them enough of an edge against more challenging secret agents. (CJ)

The 98th Academy Awards will be held on Sunday, March 15th.

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