No reason to panic | Eurozine

Writer, journalist and trained sociologist Masin Ogdowski speaks from detailed experiences as a war correspondent with Maica Stovsky of Kritika Politicna from Polish perspective on Russian attacks.

MichałSutowski: After the drones entered Poland in the morning, the prime minister said, “There is no reason to panic. Life continues normally.” Was he right?

Marcin Ogdowski: After all the attacks on Ukraine, always bigger and more intentional – life returns to normal. In that sense, there is nothing extraordinary about what Donald Tass is saying. He probably implies that this is not an open war act. Because it’s not, and that’s why he advises people to go back to everyday life.

MichałSutowski: But in what way?

Marcin Ogdowski: The scale of the threat is so small there is no real reason to panic. When drones go outside, or when we are at home, even in Ukraine – from an individual’s perspective, the risk of falling into our heads remains negligible.

MichałSutowski: How does what happened from Tuesday night to Wednesday (8th to 9th September) have anything to do with the operation of Zapad 2025 in Belarus?

Marcin Ogdowski: One hypothesis is that it may be addressing situations where defense systems and how to respond to threats are being tested as part of Zapad. Exercises like this always come with provocation, but not on this scale, they are actually unprecedented. But the provocation was part of a military exercise held at the border by the offensive states, and Russia is the case at that time.

MichałSutowski: What do we know about the NATO Allied forces used in connection with Polish drones?

Marcin Ogdowski: The Dutch F-35 stationed in Poland as part of the revolving being was in the air. They have been here since September 1st and will remain until December 1st. Such obligations have been carried out at greater strength since the outbreak of a full-scale war in Ukraine. Of the four Dutch aircraft in Poland, at least two were scrambled, and they were the most hits. Tanker aircraft with Italian crews were flying with them to ensure that others in the air didn’t need to land unnecessary for fuel. Additionally, there were their own F-16S and AWACS reconnaissance aircraft. This set of assets also includes German patriots stationed in eastern Poland. The launcher did not fire, but the radar station monitored the sky and provided information to the integrated air defense system.

MichałSutowski: How can you evaluate the Ministry of Defense’s information policy? Has the ministry reached a conclusion from a missile that fell near the Privodou?

Marcin Ogdowski: As for the stiff motion response, it worked as needed. There should have been a “soft” aspect that contained information in general as well. But we still have lessons to learn. In Ukraine, when Russian missiles or drones appear in the air, information is transmitted to civilians via electronic devices. The most common method is an app that alerts people on the phone when something is approaching. We are not at war so we don’t have this system. But perhaps it’s time to implement such a solution so that the population is unaware of the threat in real time.

MichałSutowski: There are alerts issued by the Government Security Centre (RCB). I got one at 8:34am.

Marcin Ogdowski: These alerts are technically and morally outdated and no one pays attention to them. However, when the Ukrainians already invented it, there is no need to reinvent the wheel. It’s time for government-supported apps to notify people in the area at risk of being blackmailed. Use a “falling dead” siren, rather than a careful sound of text message notifications.

MichałSutowski: Such incidents have happened for months, although not on this scale. But people simply don’t know what to do.

Marcin Ogdowski: This is because the entire Polish civil defense system is in a hellish situation. There is also a lack of defense education. When people hear the sirens, they just ignore them because they don’t know what to do. Of course, there is growing awareness of general threats. We know that Russia is aggressive, there is war across borders, and there can be many different ways to end. However, there is no robust institutional solution that will allow Paul to say he is prepared for a crisis scenario.

MichałSutowski: Okay, alerts and apps are one thing. However, at the same time, we can see how quickly the so-called “interpretation” inspired by the Russian side is spreading throughout the Internet. Obviously, this was a fully prepared operation in every respect…

Marcin Ogdowski: The speed of these messages does not conclude that the operation is shown to have been prepared in advance. Russians are running a complex disinformation campaign. They have the know-how and they know how to quickly utilize something that appears very suddenly.

MichałSutowski: But isn’t that even worse? In that case, you don’t need to be prepared for a particular event. The drone fell, and soon he wrote online that this “took Poland into war,” speculating that “probably it was a Ukrainian drone after all,” and of course “nothing seems to fall on the Hungarians and Slovaks.”

Marcin Ogdowski: Unfortunately, we simply lose the cognitive war. It is surprising how these disinformation messages are becoming more and more entrenched in our society. You’ll just rap up, so no special plans are required.

MichałSutowski: Let’s ask about the drone itself. I get the impression that we are a little shaken here. The stance that “it’s a game changer” leads to the view that this is the most important weapon on modern battlefields, abolishing tanks and drones are merely another weapon, and nothing to excite. Where do you stand on this issue?

Marcin Ogdowski: Drones are an alternative tool to battlefield situations due to the lack of artillery and adapted for real air forces. This is why Elsatz weapons such as drones were developed. This does not mean that we can dismiss them, but rather that they should be treated as another type of weapon we are ready to face. And I have the impression that this is certainly a way for the Polish army to approach them.

MichałSutowski: What does that mean?

Marcin Ogdowski: Fortunately, we don’t succumb to the “drone fad” and the belief that drones solve everything. We are trying to take a broader view: drones do not rule out the need for traditional air forces, armored forces, or precision guns. Every branch of the military must simply be prepared for the threat posed by drones.

MichałSutowski: What about the argument that, whereas tanks cost millions, drones only cost thousands, and that a small number of drones can easily disable such machines?

Marcin Ogdowski: To hit the tank, these few drones need to reach the location. People seem to think that wars in Ukraine represent a war that is fought between the NATO army and Russia, but that is not possible. To use drones effectively as the Russians do, you need to be in close contact with the enemy, not to include another issue, Shades. This is because these drones are very limited in the range of 10-15km. The Russians will not bring it to us.

MichałSutowski: How do you know that?

Marcin Ogdowski: NATO has much stronger aerodynamic forces and artillery in a much longer range, not to mention much higher accuracy. We force the Russians to fight from a distance of 40-50km. And because their artillery cannot do so, they cannot attack accurately at that distance. Their air force is too weak, and as mentioned before, their drones aren’t too far away.

MichałSutowski: And what about those Shahedes? They fly far…

Marcin Ogdowski: it’s true. And here things don’t look rosy. The Russians have the ability to mass-produce these systems. For example, firing a thousand drones in Poland can actually cause problems. Poland is smaller than Ukraine, and our infrastructure is more concentrated and defensive response times are shorter.

MichałSutowski: That’s not very promising.

Marcin Ogdowski: But let’s assume we don’t go to extremes and that many Shahedes are not challenged. Please note that there is an air force, ground-based air defense system, and a wireless electronic warfare system. Furthermore, we are on the verge of a major revolution in air defense weapons. So Shahed is not a game changer that permanently changes the rules of the battlefield. Still, I acknowledge that it can cause considerable damage to us today.

MichałSutowski: Are these laser systems developed anywhere in the world, or do you already have them, or do you have them soon?

Marcin Ogdowski: The most advanced systems are now owned by Israel and the UK. The latter is our NATO ally.

MichałSutowski: We have heard various hypotheses about the purpose of Russian drone raids. We believe it was a test of our defense system. But how do you know that another 20 or 50 drones will enter the airspace, whether it’s another “test” or a prelude to something bigger?

Marcin Ogdowski: In my view, another attack, including dozens of drones, escalates to the level of hybrid attacks. After that, we must respond accordingly – as an alliance and as a nation, we have the technical means to counterattack the Russians on their own territory.

MichałSutowski: meaning?

Marcin Ogdowski: For example, “lose” a large number of drones by “accidental” launching missiles at St. Petersburg. Of course, I am a bit ironic, but only to emphasize the existence of these technical possibilities. But even now, after today’s attack, the best course of action is to support Ukraine more. That’s where Russia’s war machinery is worn down. Poland is also interested in establishing a more robust air defense system with the help of Allied forces and resources. This shield is deployed here, but should also cover western Ukraine. Clearly, Russian drones and missiles should be shot down before they enter Polish airspace.