From Socrates feigning ignorance to diversity initiatives funding HR empires, contrarianism sells. Being weird is weirdly conventional. The drone needed to be an alien. I hope UFOs are real, or at least weird. Bob Evans now offers orange mimosa pancakes and brioche French toast. “2 + 2 = 5” is the title of my Substack blog, a play on George Orwell’s “doublethink.” If you want something really different, you can change the title to 2 + 2 = 4.
The advertising industry also understands this. The popular T-shirt proclaims, “Do something out of the ordinary.” Counterintuitive things can be profitable. The publisher is having a field day: The power of negative thinking against everything classic self-help Why do men love bitches? and The subtle art of not caring. fifty shades of gray has become one of the best-selling books of all time, with international editions published in many languages, and enjoys the scorn that promises pain.
Renowned risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the author of another bestseller. Black Swan: The impact of a highly unlikely eventalong with several sequels. Taleb sells books and gives seminars as much as he does on Wall Street. He leverages the extraordinary and unexpected as an investment strategy and lifestyle. Black swans are rare except in Australia, so it’s the perfect meme. In fact, like most waterfowl, black swans flee when they perceive a threat and seek safety.
In response to all of this, especially New York City, Warren Buffet is making billions of dollars by staying in Omaha and enjoying double orders of hash browns and Cherry Coke. He takes Orwell head on and says, “It takes a constant struggle to see what’s right in front of you.” Buffett recognizes the obvious danger that risk management systems create a false sense of security. I think it is no longer possible. But it doesn’t matter. Pumpernickel is classier than white bread and sexier than Nebraska. (In German, pumpernickel was originally a derogatory name for a stupid person – and bread itself was first called crank blotor “sick bread.” )
This tension between the obvious and the contrarian extends beyond finance. Black swan thinking may explain why figures like billionaire Peter Thiel, a disciple of philosopher René Girard, and J.D. Vance, a disciple of philosopher René Girard, support Trump. They draw on Girard’s theory of imitation (his analysis of how humans imitate the desires of others) but turn it on its head. While Girard critically observes that humans follow the crowd, he also sees value in going against the grain of what they perceive to be the mainstream “liberal” consensus. Thiel demonstrated this as co-founder of PayPal, seeing the potential failure of going against the trend as worth it given the rewards of innovation. As he says, “I’d rather be really, really wrong than be right and really insignificant.”
Going against popular belief can be a smart strategy. In the parable of dishonest Manager (Luke 16:1-9), Jesus was praised (Eppenesen) “The children of this age are more shrewd about their generation than the children of light,” the manager wisely said.
During the Cesar Chavez-era New Haven grape boycott, I found myself acting as an intermediary between idealistic protesters and the notoriously corrupt Teamsters Local 443. A union delivery boy was beating up college students picketing a liquor store. Since I was a popular customer (at the time), the owner asked me to act as an intermediary.
I entered the local headquarters through an armed guard and a bolted door. At the end of the mahogany table sat the boss, “Chickie” Pisano. The walls were lined with bulletin boards with names and addresses written on them. On our side were posters of Che Guevara and Chavez. The silence was thick.
I studied the list of these names, was shocked by the help given and received in red lettered emergencies, and then walked past Pisano’s security guard and shook his hand. Without mentioning boycotts, we discussed the alternatives to bashing college students while ignoring the costs to those trying to make a living.
As a result, there was no consensus and respect was created where there was no consensus before. Leaders from all walks of life, from students fighting for farm workers to drivers protecting their families to liquor store owners trying to stay in business, are trying to see others as themselves, not just children, thugs, or greedy businessmen. I came to see him as a person caught in a moral web. responsibility. The protests did not end. It was moved to a safer location in downtown’s central plaza, away from liquor stores and with greater visibility and more interaction with the public.
The “children of light” are not powerless either. Apparently we all need to be like that sometimes.
Today, this sounds like another black swan story. It means betting on something improbable, even “anti-mimetic,” i.e., on an action that goes against the essence. At the time, it was enough to see what was there again. “We see through a dark glass,” said St. Paul. He didn’t say we were invisible. You don’t have to do a risk analysis or bet on the unknown to think it might be in Chicky Pisano’s best interest to help. No need for sarcasm.
The black swan is having its moment. Anti-imitation is the new normal. Weird and unusual is a safe bet. “Weird” is a good investment and also works well in politics. White House felonies may be strategic, adding intrigue to exaggerate legitimate grievances. Crime can be sophisticated and a black swan in itself.
This is the strong hand of “the children of this generation, who are more shrewd in their own generation than the children of light.” all We are also children of this age. If we were more mature, we could be shrewd enough to call our bluff without having to go to Australia.
notes and reading
The drone needed to be an alien. UFOs must be real, or at least something strange, and no more the same. – look practical mysticAddison Hodges Hart (Substack), “Confronting the Exegores” (February 15, 2024), and “About Those Drones” (December 19, 2024).
René Girard – What has been hidden since the beginning of heaven and earth (1978). Girard is considered one of the most important philosophers of our time. His ideas, developed in the 1960s, provide a compelling approach to contemporary social problems. His influence, especially on young right-wing technologists, is due to his presence at Stanford University, the intellectual wellspring of Silicon Valley, and the timeliness of his ideas.
Girard was a devout Catholic and was influential in converting J.D. Vance. Peter Thiel has described himself as “a bit of a heretic” in his Christian faith. Although Girard’s own thinking was critical of modern culture, do not have inherently illiberal.
To understand Girard better:
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Cynthia L. Heaven wrote an acclaimed biography in 2018. Evolution of Desire: The Life of René GirardI also edited a collection of his writings. Haven has a long-standing partnership with Stanford University. Leon Wieseltier, one of America’s leading critics, said: evolution of desire: “Cynthia Haven’s books evoke so many things so vividly and so intelligently.”
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Another highly regarded study of Girard is the popular book by Luke Burgess. Desire: The power of imitative desire in everyday life (2021). Mr. Burgis is in high demand as a speaker and consultant. He is a professor of business administration at the Ciocca Center for Principled Entrepreneurship at The Catholic University of America.
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Conspiracy: Peter Thiel, Hulk Hogan, Gawker, Anatomy of a Conspiracy – Ryan Holiday (2018). Holliday was a businessman known for popularizing the Stoic philosophy. His breakthrough came with the 2012 book Believe Me, I’m Lying: Confessions of a Media Manipulator.
Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, Procrustes’ Bed, Anti-Fragile, In-Game Skin: Incert – Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2019). Taleb is a Lebanese-American essayist, risk analyst, and best-selling author. His definition is “Black Swan Event”” is inconsistent and reflexive, contradicting itself by offering advice on preparation while claiming that these events are unpredictable.
Girard’s “Mimesis” teeth consistently It is reflexive and always proves itself by claiming that everything is a desire for everything else. For Girard, the all-encompassing nature of mimetic theory creates a kind of complete circle: every human desire becomes evidence for the theory precisely because it can be traced back to the desires of others. Although internally consistent, it may not be falsifiable.
Teamster – personal story of generous donation – William C. Green (2010). Chickie (Vincent) Pisano was ahead of its time in providing health care, pensions, and other important benefits to its members that far exceeded those offered by other unions, setting an example for other unions to follow. . He passed away 12 years ago.
Jesus called them “children of this generation” – See John P. Meyer’s treatment of the parable of the “dishonest” steward. Marginal Jews: Reconsidering the Historical Jesus, Volume 5: Exploring the authenticity of fables (2016). “At least at the end of the story, Steward is more cautious and cautious than dishonest. In the face of crisis, he chooses short-term loss for long-term gain.”
Tipoff #170 – Aggressive Blessing
Approximately 2 + 2 = 5: https://williamgreen.substack.com/about
Source: 2 + 2 = 5 – williamgreen.substack.com
